Iran Again... Historian Sees War Inevitable

With part of the US naval fleet carrying out exercises with five nations in the Persian Gulf, talk of invading Iran by the Bush admin has once again begun to crest. For the past year, I have chronicled the rumblings and threats of war with Iran that have emanated from Washington.

Beginning late last year when I noted that Israel was planting articles in the media about an impending Israeli air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, speculation about such a war has ebbed and flowed. ...

I recently linked to an article by Richard Sale reprinted by Pat Lang. In his piece, Sale says that any such threat of an imminent attack on Iran was very hot in the Bush admin during the Summer. He reports from insiders that Bush had already made up his mind to do the nasty deed. But Bush lost steam and the possibility of an attack subsided.

And yet Israel has never let up on the possibility of attacking Iran. As I noted in another posting, the potential scenarios for instigating such an attack included some "incident" which would provide the Bush admin plausible grounds to move forward with the attack.

Some have speculated that such an attack is what Bush's brain, Karl Rove, has referred to in private by threatening some sort of "October surprise" leading up to the November legislative elections. In the face of such speculation, I have remarked that such an attack might actually backfire for the Republicans, since the American public is likely to see such a war as the cynical wagging of the dog that it would be.

In two articles (here and here), historian William R. Polk has detailed his reasons for why he believes that an invasion of Iran is inevitable--if not before the election, then before Bush leaves office.

Polk writes:

So why do I predict an American attack on Iran?

The answer is composed of the same elements I have described: Mr. Bush’s belief that he has a God-given task which he must accomplish before he leaves office – and perhaps even before the forthcoming Congressional elections might cripple his means of action. His belief that what his own intelligence experts tell him is wrong, that Iran actually is about to acquire the bomb, is stirring the pot of Middle Eastern terrorism and is a threat to the existence of Israel. Finally, he believes he has the authority, given by the American people in his two elections and through Congressional approval of his war with Afghanistan, to act. In the next article, I will discuss what he is doing to effect his policy.