Scenario 1: Provoking Iran for US Invasion

Recent reports in the media are

* Putting Iran behind Hizbullah's attack on Israel,--who Bush says the US promised to defend if attacked--

* Accusing Iran of material and logistic support for Shiite insurgency and militias in Iraq

* Showing provocations along the border of Kurdistan with Iran by Kurdish rebels (and Israeli special ops teams?), which both Turkey and Iran have responded to by bombarding the guerilla camps (according to some reports)

At this point, I am surprised that the Pentagon has not made more these than they have so far. Perhaps they are simply waiting to tighten up supply lines in Iraq, moving US forces into positions of support for an attack/invasion of Iran, or waiting for Israel to attack as it is reported to be preparing to do.

The latter points are highly speculative.

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Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv, and Sarah Baxter, New York write

THREATENED by a potentially nuclear-armed Tehran, Israel is preparing for a possible war with both Iran and Syria, according to Israeli political and military sources.

The conflict with Hezbollah has led to a strategic rethink in Israel. A key conclusion is that too much attention has been paid to Palestinian militants in Gaza and the West Bank instead of the two biggest state sponsors of terrorism in the region, who pose a far greater danger to Israel’s existence, defence insiders say.

“The challenge from Iran and Syria is now top of the Israeli defence agenda, higher than the Palestinian one,” said an Israeli defence source. Shortly before the war in Lebanon Major-General Eliezer Shkedi, the commander of the air force, was placed in charge of the “Iranian front”, a new position in the Israeli Defence Forces. His job will be to command any future strikes on Iran and Syria.

Possible scenario for provoking an attack includes the following:

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear sites. Hizbullah launches retaliatory strikes wither in suicide attacks and/or rockets. Or: Iran launches missles into Israel.

Bush declares that Iran is behind these attacks, and that the US is committed to protecting Israel's security. He goes to Congress for an authorization to use military force. Congress supports him because: 1) the Jewish lobby 2) American sentiments supporting Israel.

The chances of the Congress not supporting an AUMF if Israel is attacked are close to nil, I believe.