Counterpoint: Oil Industry Bets On No War in Iran

The oil industry seems to be betting on the idea that Iran will eventually negotiate its position on nuclear power/weapons, and thereby forestall any porjected US invasion/attack. ...

It's a good point. If you accept the idea that the military invasion of Iraq by the US was in part motivated by a desire to secure Iraqi oilfields, then what the oil industry says might lead you to believe that it does not see an invasion of Iran in the same light as it saw the Iraq invasion.

According to Reuters (via Nergol @ Spengler's Forum:

Oil fell more than a dollar to less than $68 a barrel on Monday, pulled lower by expectations that any sanctions against oil producer Iran were some way off and would not necessarily disrupt export flows.
....
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Monday stressed the need to avoid a confrontation with Iran.

He was speaking after a visit to the OPEC oil producer, during which he said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had reaffirmed Iran's willingness to negotiate a solution to the nuclear dispute, although he said it would not suspend uranium enrichment.

Iran failed to meet an August 31 deadline to halt its enrichment program or run the risk of U.N. sanctions.

"All along the nuclear issue has been a lengthy play of many acts. Probably, we're coming up to another act, which is sanctions, but there are likely going to be negotiations of what these sanctions are," said Mike Wittner of Calyon bank.